FBI report on active shooter motivation and planning

Several years ago, the FBI attempted to identify what motivates active shooters. The study found that, although motives differ, they fall into a few identifiable categories. Shooters do not always document plans of their attacks, but the FBI identified some potential warning signs.

Most active shooters (80%) had a grievance, whether real or perceived, and were motivated by something they saw as an injustice. They wanted revenge for perceived mistreatment or unfairness, and the primary target was someone known to the shooter. Unfortunately, most victims were bystanders who happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.

The three most common motivations were:

• Personal (such as a recent divorce, financial difficulties, legal problems, or conflicts with family member or coworkers)
• Employment related (such as a recent termination)
• General hatred (such as racism or anti-religious bias)

Employers should watch for employees who complain about such issues, especially if they blame others for their problems, get into confrontations with coworkers, and/or seem to be contemplating suicide (which suggests extreme despair).

Planning an attack

Approximately half of the active shooter cases studied involved potentially visible signs of planning, such as social media posts or personal journals. While all shooters are believed to plan their attacks, half of cases did not involve documentation, and planning existed solely in the attacker’s mind.

Where planning was evident, shooters almost never planned to escape; most expected to commit suicide, be killed by police, or be caught and arrested.

In cases where documentation was found, the time spent planning varied from less than one week to more than one year. The shorter time frame suggests that a shooter can move from “decision” to “attack” in just a few days. Although the study did not correlate motives with time spent planning, many shooters experienced the motivating event (such as termination of employment) shortly before the attack.

Since half the cases had no discernable planning, employers need to recognize and address warning signs. Active shooter events seem random when the attacker has no relationship to the target (such as a shopping mall or public area). However, individuals who attack their current or former place of employment likely have an injustice motive coupled with a specific target.